Wow. Michael Bisping knocked out Luke Rockhold. Just… wow. If you told me 5 years ago that Michael Bisping would beat Anderson Silva and become the middleweight champion of the UFC… I’d laugh and say you’re crazy. UFC middleweight champion at age 37… via knockout. Michael Bisping. My mind is blown.

I guess it’s really all about hard work and dedication. I mean… Michael Bisping could’ve retired by age 37. Most fighters don’t fight for 10 years… and most retire before age 37. But he believed in himself and he worked… and now he’s the champion. But then there’s also survivorship bias. For every Michael Bisping… there’s probably 10x people who just crash and burned.

You know… leading up to the fight I actually gave Bisping no chance. Since Rockhold already finished him. Even though… knocking down Anderson Silva is a pretty amazing feat. There were a few articles on how… Rockhold dedicated his life to becoming champion while Bisping has kids and stuff. How could someone with a family be more dedicated to the fight game than Luke. How could someone with less dedication and physicality beat Rockhold? Man. It just blows my mind.

I think it’s a combination of hard work / self belief and choosing what to bet on helps decide if you succeed or not. That and of course luck. Luck is there… but you gotta believe that it doesn’t exist I guess. It’s like… you need to put in the hard work and believe in yourself to get lucky in the first place. If Bisping didn’t keep training and fighter, and accepting the short notice fight he wouldn’t have gotten ‘lucky’. So was it really luck? /shrug.

I guess the plan is to take as many actions that lead to a lucky result. It’s like… gambling where you just keep gambling until you get lucky. Except you rig the expected value to help you succeed. I think I gotta re-read Black Swan. Or just finish it. You want unlimited upside but limited downside. And to keep doing what you love.

Man. I’m gonna take this as a sign. If Bisping can become world champ at age 37 via knockout… I feel okay leaving a rocketship silicon valley startup for one year in Japan.